Forfatter av avsnitt: Danielle J. Navarro and David R. Foxcroft
Bayesiansk statistikk
I våre resonnementer om faktiske forhold finnes det alle tenkelige grader av sikkerhet, fra den høyeste visshet til den laveste form for moralsk bevis. Et klokt menneske tilpasser derfor sin tro til bevisene.
The ideas I have presented to you in this book describe inferential statistics from the frequentist perspective. I am not alone in doing this. In fact, almost every textbook given to undergraduate psychology students presents the opinions of the frequentist statistician as the theory of inferential statistics, the one true way to do things. I have taught this way for practical reasons. The frequentist view of statistics dominated the academic field of statistics for most of the 20th century, and this dominance is even more extreme among applied scientists. It was and is current practice among psychologists to use frequentist methods. Because frequentist methods are ubiquitous in scientific papers, every student of statistics needs to understand those methods, otherwise they will be unable to make sense of what those papers are saying! Unfortunately, in my opinion at least, the current practice in psychology is often misguided and the reliance on frequentist methods is partly to blame. In this chapter I explain why I think this and provide an introduction to Bayesian statistics, an approach that I think is generally superior to the orthodox approach.
Dette kapittelet består av to deler: I avsnittene Rasjonelle aktørers sannsynlighetsresonnementer til Hvorfor være Bayesianer? snakker jeg om hva Bayesiansk statistikk går ut på, med de grunnleggende matematiske reglene for hvordan det fungerer, samt en forklaring på hvorfor jeg mener at den Bayesianske tilnærmingen er så nyttig. Etterpå gir jeg en kort oversikt over hvordan du kan gjøre Bayesianske versjoner av *t*-tester.